Conditional Probability of Long-term Survival After Liver Resection for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma A Multi-institutional Analysis of 535 Patients JAMA SURGERY Spolverato, G., Kim, Y., Ejaz, A., Alexandrescu, S., Marques, H., Aldrighetti, L., Gamblin, C., Pulitano, C., Bauer, T. W., Shen, F., Sandroussi, C., Poultsides, G., Maithel, S. K., Pawlik, T. M. 2015; 150 (6): 538-545


Whereas conventional actuarial overall survival (OS) estimates rely exclusively on static factors determined around the time of surgery, conditional survival (CS) estimates take into account the years that a patient has already survived.To define the CS of patients following liver resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC).Between January 1, 1990, and December 31, 2013, a total of 535 patients who underwent resection of ICC were identified from an international multi-institutional database. In this retrospective international study conducted from January to June 2014, clinicopathological characteristics, operative details, and long-term survival data were analyzed. Conditional survival estimates were calculated as the probability of survival for an additional 3 years.Resection of ICC.Overall survival and CS.While actuarial OS decreased over time from 39% at 3 years to 16% at 8 years (P?=?.002), the 3-year CS (CS3) increased over time among those patients who survived. The CS3 at 5 years-the probability of surviving to postoperative year 8 after having already survived to postoperative year 5-was 65% compared with 8-year OS of 16% (P?=?.002). Factors that were associated with worse OS included larger tumor size (hazard ratio [HR], 1.02; 95% CI, 1.00-1.05; P?=?.05), multifocal disease (HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.19-1.86; P?=?.01), lymph node metastasis (HR, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.67-2.93; P?

View details for DOI 10.1001/jamasurg.2015.0219

View details for Web of Science ID 000356615400011

View details for PubMedID 25831462