Nomogram predicting the risk of recurrence after curative-intent resection of primary non-metastatic gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors: An analysis of the US Neuroendocrine Tumor Study Group Merath, K., Bagante, F., Beal, E. W., Lopez-Aguiar, A. G., Poultsides, G., Makris, E., Rocha, F., Kanji, Z., Weber, S., Fisher, A., Fields, R., Krasnick, B. A., Idrees, K., Smith, P. M., Cho, C., Beems, M., Schmidt, C. R., Dillhoff, M., Maithel, S. K., Pawlik, T. M. WILEY. 2018: 868–78

Abstract

The risk of recurrence after resection of non-metastatic gastro-entero-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NET) is poorly defined. We developed/validated a nomogram to predict risk of recurrence after curative-intent resection.A training set to develop the nomogram and test set for validation were identified. The predictive ability of the nomogram was assessed using c-indices.Among 1477 patients, 673 (46%) were included in the training set and 804 (54%) in y the test set. On multivariable analysis, Ki-67, tumor size, nodal status, and invasion of adjacent organs were independent predictors of DFS. The risk of death increased by 8% for each percentage increase in the Ki-67 index (HR 1.08, 95% CI, 1.05-1.10; P? 3 positive nodes had a HR of 1.81 (95% CI, 1.12-2.87; P?=?0.014) and 2.51 (95% CI, 1.50-4.24; P?

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