Bayesian estimation, simulation and uncertainty analysis: the cost-effectiveness of ganciclovir prophylaxis in liver transplantation HEALTH ECONOMICS Vanness, D. J., Kim, W. R. 2002; 11 (6): 551-566


This paper demonstrates the usefulness of combining simulation with Bayesian estimation methods in analysis of cost-effectiveness data collected alongside a clinical trial. Specifically, we use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to estimate a system of generalized linear models relating costs and outcomes to a disease process affected by treatment under alternative therapies. The MCMC draws are used as parameters in simulations which yield inference about the relative cost-effectiveness of the novel therapy under a variety of scenarios. Total parametric uncertainty is assessed directly by examining the joint distribution of simulated average incremental cost and effectiveness. The approach allows flexibility in assessing treatment in various counterfactual premises and quantifies the global effect of parametric uncertainty on a decision-maker's confidence in adopting one therapy over the other.

View details for DOI 10.1002/hec.739

View details for Web of Science ID 000178279200008

View details for PubMedID 12203757