Abstract

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Among patients with cirrhosis awaiting liver transplantation, prediction of waitlist (WL) mortality is adjudicated by Model for End Stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) score. Replacing serum creatinine (Scr) with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in the MELD-Na score may improve prediction of WL mortality, especially for women and highest disease severity.METHODS: We developed (2014) and validated (2015) a model incorporating eGFR using national data (n=17,095) to predict WL mortality. Glomerular Filtration Rate (GFR) was estimated using GfR Assessment In Liver disease (GRAIL) developed amongst patients with cirrhosis (Asrani SK Hepatology.2018; www.bswh.md/grail).Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis models were utilized to compare predicted 90-day WL mortality between MELD-GRAIL-Na (re-estimated bilirubin, INR, sodium and GRAIL) vs. MELD-Na.RESULTS: Within 3 months, 27.8% were transplanted, 4.3% died on the WL and 4.7% were delisted for other reasons. GFR as estimated by GRAIL (HR 0.382, 95% CI 0.344-0.424) and the re-estimated model MELD-GRAIL-Na (HR 1.212, 95% CI 1.199-1.224) were significant predictors of mortality or being delisted on the WL within 3 months. MELD-GRAIL-Na was a better predictor of observed mortality at highest deciles of disease severity (=27-40). For score =32 (observed mortality 0.68), predicted mortality was 0.67 (MELD-GRAIL-Na) and 0.51 (MELD-Na). For women score =32 (observed mortality 0.67), predicted mortality was 0.69 (MELD-GRAIL-Na) and 0.55 (MELD-Na). In 2015, use of MELD-GRAIL-Na as compared to MELD-Na resulted in reclassification of 16.7% (n=672) of patients on the WL.CONCLUSION: Incorporation of eGFR likely captures true GFR better than Scr, especially among women. Incorporation of MELD-GRAIL-Na instead of MELD-Na may impact outcomes for 12-17% awaiting transplant and affect organ allocation.

View details for DOI 10.1002/hep.30932

View details for PubMedID 31523825