Predictive Modeling of Long-Term Opioid and Benzodiazepine Use after Intradural Tumor Resection. The spine journal : official journal of the North American Spine Society Jin, M. C., Ho, A. L., Feng, A. Y., Zhang, Y., Staartjes, V. E., Stienen, M. N., Han, S. S., Veeravagu, A., Ratliff, J. K., Desai, A. M. 2020


INTRODUCTION: Despite increased awareness of the ongoing opioid epidemic, opioid and benzodiazepine use remain high after spine surgery. In particular, long-term co-prescription of opioids and benzodiazepines have been linked to high risk of overdose-associated death. Tumor patients represent a unique subset of spine surgery patients and few studies have attempted to develop predictive models to anticipate long-term opioid and benzodiazepine use after spinal tumor resection.METHODS: The IBM Watson Health MarketScan Database and Medicare Supplement were assessed to identify admissions for intradural tumor resection between 2007 and 2015. Adult patients were required to have at least 6-months of continuous pre-admission baseline data and 12-months of continuous post-discharge follow-up. Primary outcomes were long-term opioid and benzodiazepine use, defined as at least 6 prescriptions within 12 months. Secondary outcomes were durations of opioid and benzodiazepine prescribing. Logistic regression models, with and without regularization, were trained on an 80% training sample and validated on the withheld 20%.RESULTS: A total of 1,942 patients were identified. The majority of tumors were extramedullary (74.8%) and benign (62.5%). A minority of patients received arthrodesis (9.2%) and most patients were discharged to home (79.1%). Factors associated with post-discharge opioid use duration include tumor malignancy (vs benign, B=19.8 prescribed-days/year, 95% CI 1.1 to 38.5) and intramedullary compartment (vs extramedullary, B=18.1 prescribed-days/year, 95% CI 3.3 to 32.9). Pre- and peri-operative use of prescribed NSAIDs and gabapentin/pregabalin were associated with shorter and longer duration opioid use, respectively. History of opioid and history of benzodiazepine use were both associated with increased post-discharge opioid and benzodiazepine use. Intramedullary location was associated with longer duration post-discharge benzodiazepine use (B=10.3 prescribed-days/year, 95% CI 1.5 to 19.1). Among assessed models, elastic net regularization demonstrated best predictive performance in the withheld validation cohort when assessing both long-term opioid use (AUC=0.748) and long-term benzodiazepine use (AUC=0.704). Applying our model to the validation set, patients scored as low-risk demonstrated a 4.8% and 2.4% risk of long-term opioid and benzodiazepine use, respectively, compared to 35.2% and 11.1% of high-risk patients.CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a parsimonious, predictive model to anticipate long-term opioid and benzodiazepine use early after intradural tumor resection, providing physicians opportunities to consider alternative pain management strategies.

View details for DOI 10.1016/j.spinee.2020.10.010

View details for PubMedID 33065272