The automated prediction of geographic atrophy (GA) lesion growth can help ophthalmologists understand how the GA progresses, and assess the efficiency of current treatment and the prognosis of the disease. We developed an integrated time adaptive prediction model for identifying the location of future GA growth. The proposed model was comprised of bi-directional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) network-based prediction module and convolutional neural network (CNN)-based refinement module. Considering the discontinuity of time intervals among sequential follow-up visits, we integrated time factors into BiLSTM-based prediction module to control the time attribute expediently. Then, the results from prediction module were refined by a CNN-based strategy to obtain the final locations of future GA growth. The 10 scenarios were designed to evaluate the prediction accuracy of our proposed model. The 1-6th scenarios demonstrated the importance of the prior information similarity, the 7-8th scenarios verified the effect of time factors and refinement methods respectively and the 9th scenario compared the prediction results between those using a single follow-up visit for training and using 2 sequential follow-up visits for training. The 10th scenario showed the model generalization performance across regions. The average dice indexes (DI) of the predicted GA regions in the 1-6th scenarios are 0.86, 0.89, 0.89, 0.92 and 0.88, 0.90, respectively. By integrating time factors to the BiLSTM models, the prediction accuracy was improved by almost 10%. The CNN-based refinement strategy can remove the wrong GA regions effectively to preserve the actual GA regions and improve the prediction accuracy further. The prediction results based on 2 sequential follow-up visits showed higher correlations than that based on single follow-up visit. The proposed model presented a good generalization performance while training patients and testing patients were from different regions. Experimental results demonstrated the importance of prior information to the prediction accuracy. We demonstrate the feasibility of creating a model for disease prediction.
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.media.2020.101893
View details for PubMedID 33260118