BACKGROUND: Prognostic stratification of patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis based solely on tumor-related factors has only moderate discriminatory ability. We hypothesized that the inclusion of nontumor related factors can improve prediction of long-term prognosis of patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis.METHODS: Nontumor related laboratory markers were assessed utilizing a training cohort from 2 U.S. institutions (n= 1,205). Factors independently associated with prognosis were used to develop a nontumor related prognostic score. The discriminatory ability, assessed by Harrell's C-statistics (C-index) and net reclassification improvement, was validated and compared with 3 commonly used tumor-related clinical risk scores: Fong clinical risk scores, m-clinical risk scores, and Genetic and Morphological Evaluation (GAME) score in an external validation cohort from 5 Asian (n= 1,307) and 3 European (n= 1,058) institutions. The discriminatory ability of nontumor related prognostic score combined with each of these 3 tumor-related prognostic scores was also estimated.RESULTS: Alkaline phosphatase (hazard ratio 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.84), albumin (hazard ratio 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.89), and mean corpuscular volume (hazard ratio 19.0, per log unit; 95% confidence interval, 4.79-75.0) were each independently associated with increased risk of death after resection of colorectal cancer liver metastasis (all P < .05). In turn, alkaline phosphatase, albumin, and mean corpuscular volume were combined to form a nontumor related prognostic score (2.942* mean corpuscular volume+ 0.399* alkaline phosphatase-0.339* albumin-12)* 10 (median, 16; range, 1-30). The nontumor related prognostic score had good-to-modest discriminatory ability in the external cohort (C-index= 0.58), which was comparable to the 3 established tumor-related prognostic scores (C-index: Fong clinical risk scores, 0.53, m-clinical risk scores, 0.55, GAME, 0.58). The addition of the nontumor related prognostic score to the tumor-related prognostic scores enhanced the discriminatory ability in the entire study cohort (C-index: nontumor related score+Fong, 0.60, nontumor related score+m-clinical risk scores, 0.61, nontumor related score+GAME, 0.64), as well reclassification improvement (42.5, 42.7%, and 21.2%, respectively).CONCLUSION: Nontumor related prognostic information may help improve the prognostic stratification of patients after resection of colorectal cancer liver metastasis. The nontumor related prognostic score may be combined with tumor-related prognostic tools to enhance prognostic stratification of patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis.
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.surg.2022.01.030
View details for PubMedID 35221105