In this single-center, retrospective cohort study, we aimed to elucidate simple metabolic markers or surrogate indices of ß-cell function that best predict long-term insulin independence and goal glycemic HbA1c control (HbA1c = 6.5%) after total pancreatectomy with islet autotransplantation (TP-IAT). Patients who underwent TP-IAT (n = 371) were reviewed for metabolic measures before TP-IAT and for insulin independence and glycemic control at 1, 3, and 5 years after TP-IAT. Insulin independence and goal glycemic control were achieved in 33% and 68% at 1 year, respectively. Although the groups who were insulin independent and dependent overlap substantially on baseline measures, an individual who has abnormal glycemia (prediabetes HbA1c or fasting glucose) or estimated IEQs/kg < 2500 has a very high likelihood of remaining insulin dependent after surgery. In multivariate logistic regression modelling, metabolic measures correctly predicted insulin independence in about 70% of patients at 1, 3, and 5 years after TP-IAT. In conclusion, metabolic testing measures before surgery are highly associated with diabetes outcomes after TP-IAT at a population level and correctly predict outcomes in approximately two out of three patients. These findings may aid in prognostic counseling for chronic pancreatitis patients who are likely to eventually need TP-IAT.
View details for DOI 10.1111/ajt.16573
View details for Web of Science ID 000637417100001
View details for PubMedID 33754431