Abstract

Heart failure is an established risk factor for poor outcomes in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery, yet risk stratification remains a clinical challenge. We developed an index for 30-day mortality risk prediction in this particular group.All individuals with heart failure undergoing non-cardiac surgery between October 23 2004 and October 31 2011 were included from Danish administrative registers (n?=?16?827). In total, 1787 (10.6%) died within 30?days. In a simple risk score based on the variables from the revised cardiac risk index, plus age, gender, acute surgery, and body mass index category the following variables predicted mortality (points): male gender (1), age 56-65?years (2), age 66-75?years (4), age 76-85?years (5), or age >85?years (7), being underweight (4), normal weight (3), or overweight (1), undergoing acute surgery (5), undergoing high-risk procedures (intra-thoracic, intra-abdominal, or suprainguinal aortic) (3), having renal disease (1), cerebrovascular disease (1), and use of insulin (1). The c-statistic was 0.79 and calibration was good. Mortality risk ranged from <2% for a score <5 to >50% for a score =20. Internal validation by bootstrapping (1000 re-samples) provided c-statistic of 0.79. A more complex risk score based on stepwise logistic regression including 24 variables at P?

View details for DOI 10.1002/ejhf.182

View details for Web of Science ID 000345755200009

View details for PubMedID 25359203