Active surveillance represents a strategy to address the overtreatment of prostate cancer, yet uncertainty regarding individual patient outcomes remains a concern. We evaluated outcomes in a prospective multi-center study of active surveillance.We studied 905 men in the prospective Canary Prostate cancer Active Surveillance Study (PASS) enrolled between 2008 to 2013. We collected clinical data at study entry and at pre-specified intervals and determined associations with adverse reclassification defined as increased Gleason grade or greater cancer volume on follow-up biopsy. We also evaluated the relationships of clinical parameters with pathology findings in participants who underwent surgery after a period of active surveillance.During a median follow-up of 28 months, 24% of participants experienced adverse reclassification, of whom 53% underwent treatment while 31% continued active surveillance. Overall, 19% of participants received treatment, 68% with adverse reclassification while 32% opted for treatment without disease reclassification. In multivariate Cox proportional hazards modeling, percent of biopsy cores with cancer, BMI, and PSA density were associated with adverse reclassification (P = 0.01, 0.04, 0.04). Of 103 participants subsequently treated by radical prostatectomy, 34% had adverse pathology, defined as primary pattern 4-5 or non-organ confined disease, including two with positive lymph nodes, with no significant relationship between risk category at diagnosis and findings at surgery (P = 0.76).Most men remain on active surveillance at five years without adverse reclassification or adverse pathology at surgery. However, clinical factors had only modest association with disease reclassification, supporting the need for approaches that improve prediction of this outcome.
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.juro.2015.08.087
View details for Web of Science ID 000368054800023