The Limitations of Standard Clinicopathologic Features to Accurately Risk-Stratify Prognosis after Resection of Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma JOURNAL OF GASTROINTESTINAL SURGERY Bagante, F., Merath, K., Squires, M. H., Weiss, M., Alexandrescu, S., Marques, H. P., Aldrighetti, L., Maithel, S. K., Pulitano, C., Bauer, T. W., Shen, F., Poultsides, G. A., Soubrane, O., Martel, G., Koerkamp, B., Guglielmi, A., Itaru, E., Pawlik, T. M. 2018; 22 (3): 477–85

Abstract

The ability to provide accurate prognostic data after hepatectomy for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) remains poor. We sought to develop and validate a nomogram to predict survival, as well as investigate the clinical implications of underestimating patients' risk of recurrence.Patients undergoing curative-intent resection of ICC between 1990 and 2015 at 14 major hepatobiliary centers were included. Variables significant on multivariable analysis were used to construct a nomogram to predict disease-free survival (DFS). The nomogram assigned a score to each variable included in the model and calculated the risk of recurrence.Eight hundred ninety-seven patients are included in the analytic cohort. On multivariable Cox regression analysis, tumor size >?5 cm (HR 1.98, 95% CI 1.44-2.13; p? ?6 months). Moreover, underestimation of a recurrence risk was more common among patients with clinicopathologic features traditionally considered "favorable."A nomogram based on standard clinicopathologic characteristics was suboptimal in its ability to predict accurately risk of recurrence among patients with ICC after curative-intent liver resection. Particularly, the risk of underestimating patient risk of recurrence was highest among patients with historically favorable characteristics. Over one third of patients recurred >?6 months earlier than the DFS predicted by the nomogram.

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