We identified computational imaging features on 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET) that predict recurrence/progression in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We retrospectively identified 291 patients with NSCLC from 2 prospectively acquired cohorts (training, n = 145; validation, n = 146). We contoured the metabolic tumor volume (MTV) on all pretreatment PET images and added a 3-dimensional penumbra region that extended outward 1 cm from the tumor surface. We generated 512 radiomics features, selected 435 features based on robustness to contour variations, and then applied randomized sparse regression (LASSO) to identify features that predicted time to recurrence in the training cohort. We built Cox proportional hazards models in the training cohort and independently evaluated the models in the validation cohort. Two features including stage and a MTV plus penumbra texture feature were selected by LASSO. Both features were significant univariate predictors, with stage being the best predictor (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.15 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.56-2.95], P < .001). However, adding the MTV plus penumbra texture feature to stage significantly improved prediction (P = .006). This multivariate model was a significant predictor of time to recurrence in the training cohort (concordance = 0.74 [95% CI: 0.66-0.81], P < .001) that was validated in a separate validation cohort (concordance = 0.74 [95% CI: 0.67-0.81], P < .001). A combined radiomics and clinical model improved NSCLC recurrence prediction. FDG PET radiomic features may be useful biomarkers for lung cancer prognosis and add clinical utility for risk stratification.
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