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Predicting Progression in Parkinson's Disease Using Baseline and 1-Year Change Measures JOURNAL OF PARKINSONS DISEASE Chahine, L. M., Siderowf, A., Barnes, J., Seedorff, N., Caspell-Garcia, C., Simuni, T., Coffey, C. S., Galasko, D., Mollenhauer, B., Arnedo, V., Daegele, N., Frasier, M., Tanner, C., Kieburtz, K., Marek, K., Seibyl, J., Coffey, C., Tosun-Turgut, D., Shaw, L., Trojanowski, J., Singleton, A., Toga, A., Chahine, L., Poewe, W., Foroud, T., Poston, K., Sherer, T., Chowdhury, S., Kopil, C., Casaceli, C., Dorsey, R., Wilson, R., Mahes, S., Salerno, C., Crawford, K., Casalin, P., Malferrari, G., Weisz, M., Orr-Urtreger, A., Montine, T., Russell, D., Dahodwala, N., Giladi, N., Factor, S., Hogarth, P., Standaert, D., Hauser, R., Jankovic, J., Saint-Hilaire, M., Richard, I., Shprecher, D., Fernandez, H., Brockmann, K., Rosenthal, L., Barone, P., Espay, A., Rowe, D., Marder, K., Santiago, A., Bressman, S., Hu, S., Isaacson, S., Corvol, J., Ruiz Martinez, J., Tolosa, E., Tai, Y., Politis, M., Smejdir, D., Rees, L., Williams, K., Kausar, F., Richardson, W., Willeke, D., Peacock, S., Sommerfeld, B., Freed, A., Wakeman, K., Blair, C., Guthrie, S., Harrell, L., Hunter, C., Thomas, C., James, R., Zimmerman, G., Brown, V., Mule, J., Hilt, E., Ribb, K., Ainscough, S., Wethington, M., Ranola, M., Santana, H., Moreno, J., Raymond, D., Speketer, K., Carvajal, L., Carvalho, S., Croitoru, I., Garrido, A., Payne, L., Viswanth, V., Severt, L., Facheris, M., Soares, H., Mintun, M. A., Cedarbaum, J., Taylor, P., Biglan, K., Vandenbroucke, E., Sheikh, Z., Bingol, B., Fischer, T., Sardi, P., Forrat, R., Reith, A., Egebjerg, J., Hillert, G., Saba, B., Min, C., Umek, R., Mather, J., De Santi, S., Post, A., Boess, F., Taylor, K., Grachev, I., Avbersek, A., Muglia, P., Merchant, K., Tauscher, J., Parkinsons Progression Markers Ini 2019; 9 (4): 665–79

Abstract

Improved prediction of Parkinson's disease (PD) progression is needed to support clinical decision-making and to accelerate research trials.To examine whether baseline measures and their 1-year change predict longer-term progression in early PD.Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative study data were used. Participants had disease duration =2 years, abnormal dopamine transporter (DAT) imaging, and were untreated with PD medications. Baseline and 1-year change in clinical, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and imaging measures were evaluated as candidate predictors of longer-term (up to 5 years) change in Movement Disorders Society-Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) score and DAT specific binding ratios (SBR) using linear mixed-effects models.Among 413 PD participants, median follow-up was 5 years. Change in MDS-UPDRS from year-2 to last follow-up was associated with disease duration (ß=?0.351; 95% CI?=?0.146, 0.555), male gender (ß=?3.090; 95% CI?=?0.310, 5.869), and baseline (ß=?-0.199; 95% CI?=?-0.315, -0.082) and 1-year change (ß=?0.540; 95% CI?=?0.423, 0.658) in MDS-UPDRS; predictors in the model accounted for 17.6% of the variance in outcome. Predictors of percent change in mean SBR from year-2 to last follow-up included baseline rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder score (ß=?-0.6229; 95% CI?=?-1.2910, 0.0452), baseline (ß=?7.232; 95% CI?=?2.268, 12.195) and 1-year change (ß=?45.918; 95% CI?=?35.994,55.843) in mean striatum SBR, and 1-year change in autonomic symptom score (ß=?-0.325;95% CI?=?-0.695, 0.045); predictors in the model accounted for 44.1% of the variance.Baseline clinical, CSF, and imaging measures in early PD predicted change in MDS-UPDRS and dopamine-transporter binding, but the predictive value of the models was low. Adding the short-term change of possible predictors improved the predictive value, especially for modeling change in dopamine-transporter binding.

View details for DOI 10.3233/JPD-181518

View details for Web of Science ID 000489899800003

View details for PubMedID 31450510