Learn about the flu shot, COVID-19 vaccine, and our masking policy »
New to MyHealth?
Manage Your Care From Anywhere.
Access your health information from any device with MyHealth. You can message your clinic, view lab results, schedule an appointment, and pay your bill.
ALREADY HAVE AN ACCESS CODE?
DON'T HAVE AN ACCESS CODE?
NEED MORE DETAILS?
MyHealth for Mobile
Get the iPhone MyHealth app »
Get the Android MyHealth app »
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To develop and internally validate a multivariable predictive model for days with new-onset migraine headaches based on patient self-prediction and exposure to common trigger factors.BACKGROUND: Accurate real-time forecasting of one's daily risk of migraine attack could help episodic migraine patients to target preventive medications for susceptible time periods and help decrease the burden of disease. Little is known about the predictive utility of common migraine trigger factors.METHODS: We recruited adults with episodic migraine through online forums to participate in a 90-day prospective daily-diary cohort study conducted through a custom research application for iPhone. Every evening, participants answered questions about migraine occurrence and potential predictors including stress, sleep, caffeine and alcohol consumption, menstruation, and self-prediction. We developed and estimated multivariable multilevel logistic regression models for the risk of a new-onset migraine day vs a healthy day and internally validated the models using repeated cross-validation.RESULTS: We had 178 participants complete the study and qualify for the primary analysis which included 1870 migraine events. We found that a decrease in caffeine consumption, higher self-predicted probability of headache, a higher level of stress, and times within 2days of the onset of menstruation were positively associated with next-day migraine risk. The multivariable model predicted migraine risk only slightly better than chance (within-person C-statistic: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.54, 0.58).CONCLUSIONS: In this study, episodic migraine attacks were not predictable based on self-prediction or on self-reported exposure to common trigger factors. Improvements in accuracy and breadth of data collection are needed to build clinically useful migraine prediction models.
View details for DOI 10.1111/head.13960
View details for PubMedID 33022773