Abstract

BACKGROUND: Guidelines widely recommend avoiding antibiotics for many acute upper respiratory infections (aURIs) to avert adverse events in absence of likely benefit. However, the extent of harm from these antibiotics remains a subject of debate and could inform patient-centered decision-making. Prior estimates finding a number needed to harm (NNH) between 8-10 rely on patient-reported adverse events of any severity. In this analysis, we sought to estimate adverse events by only measuring comparatively severe events that require subsequent clinical evaluation.METHODS: We constructed a retrospective cohort including 51 million patient encounters. Using logistic regression models, we determined the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of clinically detectable adverse events following antibiotic use compared with events among unexposed individuals with aURIs. Our outcomes included: candidiasis, diarrhea, Clostridium difficile infection (CDI), and a composite outcome.FINDINGS: From our analysis, 62.4% of the population received antibiotics in an aURI encounter. Observed adverse events in the antibiotic-exposed group were 54,279 and 46,936 for diarrhea and candidiasis, respectively, yielding an aOR of 1.24 and 1.61, and a NNH of 3126 and 1975. Observed events of CDI in the exposed group were 30,133, and aORs of isolated CDI and combined adverse events were 1.07 and 1.30, resulting in a NNH of 17,695 and 1150, respectively. Females were more likely to be diagnosed with any adverse event. Overall antibiotics were found to result in 5.7 additional cases of CDI per 100,000 outpatient prescriptions following an upper respiratory tract infection.INTERPRETATION: Despite higher NNH than previous methods of analysis, we find substantial iatrogenic harm associated with prescribing antibiotics in aURIs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

View details for DOI 10.1111/joim.13597

View details for PubMedID 36460621